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The 16-member ensemble runs' statistics are compared to observations to validate the model.

More detailed statistical techniques such as Maximum Covariance Analysis (MCA) are used to understand whether the key modes of variability between global SSTs and Sahel precipitation are similar in observations and the SST-driven model.

HIV-1 has spread to most parts of the world, while HIV-2 has remained largely restricted to West Africa (84).

The West African monsoon supplies the Sahel region of Africa with the majority of its annual rainfall, which can range from ~300mm to 700mm in dry or wet years, respectively.

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Simian immunodeficiency viruses (SIV) and the closely related human immunodeficiency viruses (HIV-1 and HIV-2) belong to the lentivirus subfamily of retroviruses. Phylogenetic studies of primate lentiviruses provide evidence that some SIV lineages have co-evolved with their hosts, but on the other hand they show also multiple examples of cross-species transmission from simians to humans and between different simian species (44, 86). In some cases, if cross-species transmission occurs, the virus may be pathogenic for the new host. SIVs are a large group of viruses that are found naturally in many African primate species, and serological and/or molecular evidences for SIV infection have been reported in at least 30 African non human primates (NHP) (44, 71). Although these NHP lentiviruses are called immunodeficiency viruses, they do not induce an AIDS-like disease in their natural hosts, suggesting that they have been associated and evolved with their hosts over an extended period of time.

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